⚠️ Abruin Early Warning System

Real-time Monitoring & Predictive Forecasting 2024-2025

🚨 Operational Dashboard | CFI: 0.28 (HIGH RISK)
🔴 RED ALERT ACTIVE: Multiple thresholds breached. Compound event conditions detected.

📊 Combined Forecast Index (CFI)

0.28
Current CFI
HIGH RISK
R² = 0.74
Model Accuracy
Good
4-Param
Model Type
CFI = 0.35R + 0.35SM - 0.20LST + 0.10NDVI
> 0.6 Good 0.4-0.6 Watch < 0.3 High Risk
CFI BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD - ACTIVATE DROUGHT MEASURES

🚨 Multi-Parameter Alert System

SM < 12%
STRESS WATCH
SM < 10% + LST > 297K
DROUGHT ALERT
SM < 10% + LST > 297K + SPEI < -1.5
RED WARNING

🎯 Compound Event Detection

All three trigger conditions active simultaneously - extreme ecological stress conditions

📈 Real-Time Parameter Status

9.8%
Soil Moisture
CRITICAL
297.6K
LST
WARNING
-1.8
SPEI
SEVERE
MULTIPLE PARAMETERS IN CRITICAL RANGE - COMPOUND EVENT IN PROGRESS

📅 Forecast Reliability Analysis

81%
Gu Onset Accuracy
High
49%
Hagaa Stress
Low
77%
Deyr Recovery
Moderate
BEST PERFORMANCE: Gu Onset (Apr-May) | WORST: Hagaa Stress (Jun-Jul)

🔍 Model Component Analysis

35%
Rainfall Weight
0.35R
35%
Soil Moisture
0.35SM
-20%
LST Penalty
-0.20LST

🛠️ Response Protocol Activation

CFI < 0.4 → Activate enhanced monitoring protocols
CFI < 0.3 → Implement drought mitigation measures
RED WARNING → Emergency response activation
Multiple triggers → Compound event protocol
CURRENT STATUS: DROUGHT MITIGATION MEASURES REQUIRED (CFI: 0.28)

Abruin Early Warning & Forecasting System | Operational Dashboard 2024-2025

CFI Model: 0.35Rain + 0.35SM - 0.20LST + 0.10NDVI | Accuracy: R² = 0.74